Trends in suicide deaths before and after the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea.

We investigated the effect of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on suicide trends in Korea via a time-series analysis. We used Facebook Prophet to generate forecasting models based on the monthly numbers of suicide deaths in Korea between 1997 and 2018, validated the models by comparison with the 2019 numbers, and predicted the numbers of suicides in 2020. We compared the expected and observed numbers of suicides during the COVID-19 pandemic. The total numbers of suicides during the COVID-19 pandemic did not deviate from projections based on the pre-pandemic period. However, the number of suicides among women and those under the age of 34 years significantly exceeded the expected level. The COVID-19 pandemic did not increase the overall suicide rate significantly. However, suicides among women and young people increased, suggesting that the pandemic might drive more members of these groups to suicide. Further studies are needed to verify the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide.

Decline in Hospital Visits by Patients with Schizophrenia Early in the COVID-19 Outbreak in Korea.

OBJECTIVE: This study investigated trends in hospital utilization by patients with schizophrenia during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea. METHODS: The Prophet algorithm was used to predict the monthly number of patients with schizophrenia in 2020 based on medical insurance data between 2010 and 2019. The projected expectations were compared with the actual number of patients receiving outpatient and inpatient treatment each month in the first half of 2020. We conduct interrupted time series analyses of short-term data to determine the significance of recent changes in the trend of hospital visits by patients with schizophrenia. RESULTS: The prediction model showed that the actual number of patients receiving treatment each month during the early COVID-19 outbreak decreased by up to 3.6% compared to the projected expectations. The interrupted time series model also revealed a significant change in hospital utilization compared to the year before the onset of COVID-19 in Korea (F = 8.961, p = 0.010). CONCLUSION: This suggests that many patients with schizophrenia were not receiving adequate treatment during the COVID-19 outbreak. A strategy should be developed to keep treating patients with schizophrenia during the COVID-19 pandemic.